Chroma Investing

Value Investing for beginning & small time investors and the value investing strategies of Graham & Klarman

Worse Case Scenario Investing

I have just finished¬† reading a book that has forced me to reconsider how I evaluate risk , because it discuss investing in a worse case scenario. Evaluating risk has been an ongoing interest of mine because I assert that understanding risk is crucial to making sound investments.¬† If you overlook an element of risk […]

Value Investing Congress 2009 – Macroeconomics are Important

You could think of this as a part two from yestedays post that laid out in outline what we missed for those of us that either didn’t know about or couldn’t attend the 2009 Value Investing Congress. One of the most interesting items I have read about this years Congress was the speech given by David Einhorn, a person I was not previously familiar with. You should download the speech NOW. He spoke about a previous failure that made him realize that as a good value investor you can not be agnostic to macroeconomic factors.

Perplexing Stock Market

If you look at the current Price Earnings Ratio, the overall stock market is seriously overvalued. But the market keeps going up, closing today at an 11 month high. I am not complaining, really. I am long on some stocks, but I am gettting close to what I consider a fair value on my General Electric stock. But the common wisdom is that the market is pricing in an economic recovery. Really? With 10% unemployment. The consumer is 2/3 of the economy, so if we ain’t spending then there is no recovery on the topline growth. It seems to me that economists take a hit of marijuana and then issue their statements. There is no relationship to reality.

Be careful if you are invested in Chinese stocks

I know I said I was done with bearish sentiments, but…

This new one is from Vitaly at Contrarian Edge. And mostly I include it because I realized that many people have been fleeing the American stock market because they see these amazing returns in China, and think this party is going to keep on going. And these statements are usually followed by something like, “this time is different.” And if someone, including you has said these words, be prepared for what comes next. Read what he has posted, it will make you cautious about being in China.

Bearish Real Estate Investing News

In the final installment of Bearish indicators, I have moved away from the Stock Market completely but to the area of real estate. Why?

Everyone seems to think the recovery of the real estate market is the secret sauce that will get us out of the bad times were are in (even if the recession is “technically” over).Whitney Tilson, who wrote the original article, is a co-founder of T2 and he established the Value Investing Congress a twice yearly, gathering for the value vesting geeks. He recently wrote a book called More Mortgage Meltdown: 6 Ways to Profit in these Bad Times, with his partner Glenn Tongue. A book very high on my list to read.

Technical Bearish News for the Stock Market

Another bearish article has appeared in Zignal. It discusses that the noted Elliot Wave Theorist has turned bearish after having been quite bullish from March lows. Does this mean the stock market is crashing again. Of course not. I am intrigued by Technical Analysisparticularly Elliot Wave based notions seem to have predicted some big drops and rises. I have not studied any of it, nor seen any studies that support their ideas

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