New Beginning Investing Blog – The Fallible Investor
Posted on | February 23, 2010 | No Comments
I came across a new investing blog that I think is terrific for beginning investors. It is the Fallible Investor. The writer is an Australian value investor who shares a lot of the same tastes as I do: Taleb, Montier, Klarman. I particularly like his concept of laying out scenarios for a business, good and bad and then describing the pros and cons of those scenarios. Even in a Net Net stock we need to look at the downside. Sure we may be protected by a margin of safety, but was is the likely scenario if everything goes south. IF liquidation is the likely outcome, have we really adequately calculated liquidation expenses and more importantly, would the liquidation be forced or as Klarman discusses “an orderly” liquidation. Each of these different scenarios effect the range of valuations. Also, what if our investment does better than expected? Having thought about the upside can help lead us to a better exit strategy.
The Fallible Investor recommends reading his posts from oldest first to get a sense of his investment philosophy. Enjoy!
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