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Value Investing for beginning & small time investors and the value investing strategies of Graham & Klarman

Searching for a Good Value Stock

Posted on | November 2, 2009 | No Comments

I spent the better part of this last weekend researching ideas for investing. I know I have been on  a tear about the state of the stock market and the risks moving forward, but I didn’t think after fifteen hours of research I would come away empty handed. But I did.

The strange part is that I didn’t rely on my ideas springing out my own feverish mind. I went to a bunch of sources looking to steal ideas where ever possible. I went to AAII and used some of their value investing screeners, in particular the Piotroski screen (yielded only one stock). I went to Motley Fool. I subscribe to  the Hidden Gems service which focus’s on small cap stocks. They have been buying recently, for me I found Zip. I am reviewing  a premium service that Morningstar offers called Opportunistic Investor. The idea is find special situations or overlooked stocks. Great Idea. But so far, Nada that I want to buy. To be fair to all these websites, I did not profile every stock they listed as either part of their portfolio or on their watchlists. Some I eliminated for good reasons, some I haven’t gotten to.

The thing that stunned me is that NONE of the prospects I profile looked like a great deal. Oh, a couple of stocks looked interesting from a relativistic comparison of their PE to their historic PE’s. Yeah, that and a nickle still leaves you with a nickel. I know some of the professional services use some form of PE that as a strong element in their decision making, I would be more likely to use it as a reason not to make a trade if, something looked overvalued. But it doesn’t reveal enough information to me that makes a company essential to invest in. Growth in Free Cash Flow. Low Debt. Low Price to book ratio, High Return on Equity. Those are reasons to get excited.

So while some of the companies I looked at looked great as companies. They did not look like great investments. This is the Apple syndrome. I love Macs. That is all I use, even in my professional life. I love my iPhone, particularly the games. But I do not own Apple stock. This doesn’t mean it is a bad stock. It is not one I can evaluate properly. Its value is based on perceived growth in a rapidly changing arena, technology. I have no idea where they will be in a year. How can invest in them long term. I wish I could. I have a friend who made a killing buying Apple back when it was $11. And he bought a boatload.

What I didn’t do this past weekend  was go to some my usual sources of great prospects: other blogs. It was a deliberate decision. I wanted to see what the established investment advisers were recommending. Blogs have a different time frame. I have not been recommending any trades lately, because I haven’t made any. I recommend only what I invest, and not even every trade. I am not under the gun to provide this weeks or months pick, nor are the best of the blogs. That gives some of us a different perspective on how often we recommend something.

And sometimes that means you come up empty handed.

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